Trade changes under the Sino-US tariff grace period: surprise shipment tide and supply chain risk warning

Since May 14th, China and the United States have officially lowered reciprocal tariffs to 10%. This temporary measure will be maintained for 90 days, and will be decided whether to extend or adjust it according to the progress of bilateral consultations

The industry warns that the "suspension" of the trade war will reshape the rhythm of the peak season of the US line this year. In order to avoid the risk that policies may be repeated after the end of the 90-day tariff grace period (until mid-August), traditional logistics traders and cross-border e-commerce companies may focus on shipping large quantities from now until mid-August to supplement the inventory deficit caused by the previous tariff war.

This wave of concentrated shipments is also likely to cause new logistics problems. As major shipping companies on the U.S. line are currently adjusting routes and planning overtime ships, it is expected that major U.S. ports will experience a surge in arriving ships from June to July. Facing congestion pressure, the risk of port congestion is accumulating.

Especially for ports in the western United States, since the outbreak of the epidemic, the port infrastructure and inland logistics system of the United States have not been substantially upgraded. If there is a concentrated and explosive influx of shipping capacity in the short term, it may repeat the same mistakes during the epidemic-the nightmare of port congestion and supply chain delays may repeat itself again.

Future forecasts Since shipowners cut the capacity of the US line by 30%-40% in mid-to-late April, the demand for freight on the US line increased sharply after the release of the Sino-US tariff reduction announcement, but the capacity failed to recover in time.

At present, the supply of shipping space is seriously insufficient, and it is expected that there will be a shortage of shipping capacity in the next month. Coupled with Carrier taking the opportunity to raise prices, it is expected that freight rates will climb to close to the high level during the epidemic in June. Coupled with the arrival of the traditional logistics peak season from July to September and the end of the superimposed tariff window period, space shortages may continue until the end of the third quarter.

The current challenges of high shipping prices and container shortages have indeed put tremendous pressure on global supply chains. Shenzhen Great Link Co., Ltd. As a Sino-US logistics front-end enterprise in South China, we understand the plight of our customers and are committed to providing more stable, flexible and efficient solutions in the turbulent market.

If you have any Sino-US logistics needs, please feel free to contact us. With professional supply chain solutions and flexible marketing strategies, we will optimize transportation costs for you, improve logistics efficiency, and help your global business develop steadily!